Smallpox, Polio and Wuhan

As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization estimated that 15 million people contracted smallpox and that two million died in that year. In 1967, smallpox killed 2 million people out of a world population of 3.463 billion, for a world-wide death rate of 0.00057753. That was enough to spur a world-wide vaccination effort to successfully wipe that disease from the face of the earth.

The first major polio epidemic in the United States occurred in 1916 and reached its peak in 1952. Of the 57,628 reported cases in 1952, there were 3,145 deaths. The 1952 US Population: 157.6 million. So, in the worst year we ever experienced, the US had a polio death rate of 0.00036. That kind of death rate was enough to spur a world-wide campaign to eliminate polio forever, a campaign which is still ongoing.

Approximately 70% of all polio infections in children are asymptomatic. Another 24% of polio infections in children consist of a minor, nonspecific illness without clinical or laboratory evidence of central nervous system invasion. Nonparalytic aseptic meningitis occurs in 1% to 5% of polio infections in children. Typically, symptoms last 2 to 10 days and are followed by complete recovery. Together, this accounts for more than 99% of cases.

Less than 1% of polio infections in all children result in flaccid paralysis. Of that "less than 1%" population, only 2% to 5% of paralysed children and 15% to 30% of adolescents and adults will die, although up between 25% to 75% will die if there is bulbar involvement. Of the "less than 1%" population, 21% will have bulbar involvement. So, 75% of 21% of less than 1% = 0.1575% worst case fatality rate, although the polio fatality rate could be as good as 0.0525%. That's a 99.85% to 99.95% survival rate for polio.

In the United States, coronavirus has produced a death rate of 43,995 in a population of 330 million (that's as of 4/21/2020. Today, 5/16/2020, it's 87,697. In three weeks, the death count doubled). The first case of the Wu-flu in the US was January 19, 2020, just about three months ago. So, in three months, CCP-virus has produced a death rate of 0.000133. But that’s just three months. To get the full year death rate, multiply by 4.  It is not unreasonable to project an annual death rate from coronavirus of 0.000533 by the end of December.

Now, you may argue that the death rate in the US has been artificially inflated, because officials are including all kinds of deaths into the Covid 19 virus death rate that shouldn’t really be counted against the Chinese virus. But we also know that China definitely lied about the death rate they experienced with Wuhan virus, deliberately under-counting deaths by at least tens of thousands.  Do the two miscounts balance each other out? We don’t know. We can only work with the numbers we are given. Even if there is fudging in the US, I trust the US numbers more than the China numbers, which is why I'm doing US death rates instead of world mortality death rates. . The world death rate would be 177,230 out of 7.8 billion, which yields an annual world mortality rate of 0.00009, which is likely an undercount (as of 5/16/2020, it is 308,899 out of 7.8 billion, annual mortality rate: 0.00016).

Annual mortality rates

• Smallpox (1967)    0.00058
• Polio (1952)           0.00036
• Wu-Virus (US)       0.00053
• Wu-Virus (World)  0.00009 
• US Deaths WW II: 0.00076 (average per year)

So, our current epidemic is killing people faster than polio did in the US in the worst year we ever had for polio, and nearly as fast as the death rate smallpox delivered to the world in 1967.

If you don’t think the precautions being taken are worthwhile, then be logically consistent. You must also insist that too much fuss has been made about smallpox and polio as well.

Update: 7/12/2020
Wu-Virus (US) has had 136,621 deaths as of 7/12/2020, roughly 6 months.
That yields an annual mortality of 273,242 and a mortality of 0.00082
Annual mortality rates

• Smallpox (1967, world)    0.00058
• Polio (1952, US)               0.00036
• Wu-Virus (US)                  0.00082
• Wu-Virus (World)             0.00009 
• US Deaths WW II:           0.00076 (average per year)

Polio, at it's height, only killed about 3,000 people. That's all. A drop in the bucket compared to Wu-flu:

"For the next four decades, swimming pools and movie theaters closed during polio season for fear of this invisible enemy. Parents stopped sending their children to playgrounds or birthday parties for fear they would “catch polio.”

In the outbreak of 1916, health workers in New York City would physically remove children from their homes or playgrounds if they suspected they might be infected. Kids, who seemed to be targeted by the disease, were taken from their families and isolated in sanitariums.

In 1952, the number of polio cases in the U.S. peaked at 57,879, resulting in 3,145 deaths."

Cut-And-Paste response for those who dismiss Covid:

Covid has somewhat worse morbidity/mortality effects than polio.
As long as you consider polio a "mild seasonal virus", then Covid is certainly nothing more than that.

If you don't believe the comparison is accurate, look at the numbers. In 1952, the number of polio cases in the U.S. peaked at 57,879, resulting in 3,145 polio deaths, out of a total US population of 157 million people. Polio morbidity was equally paltry: In 1959, there were 1,200 people using tank respirators in the United States. 1200 people paralyzed, 3145 people killed, out of 157 million. That's it. For THAT we launched a decades-long world-wide vaccination campaign.

For the first half of the 20th century, swimming pools and movie theaters closed during polio season for fear of this invisible enemy. Parents stopped sending their children to playgrounds or birthday parties for fear they would “catch polio.” In the outbreak of 1916, health workers in New York City would physically remove children from their homes or playgrounds if they suspected they might be infected. Kids, who seemed to be targeted by the disease, were taken from their families and isolated in sanitariums.

Of the 57,879 who were infected in 1952 (the worst year), roughly 21,000 were paralyzed to some degree. Of those whose lungs were paralyzed, most only required an iron lung for one or two weeks. Doctors felt a much larger health threat was tuberculosis, which 34,000 people died from in 1950. Also, the deadly flu epidemic of 1957 killed 62,000. By contrast, 3200 people died during 1952, the worst year of the polio epidemic.

The survival rate for polio was 99.95%. The survival rate for Covid is 99.96%. Covid also produces long-term morbidity in terms of lung, circulatory and brain damage, although the exact extent of this morbidity is still not clear. For better or worse, the Covid scare is essentially the 21st century version of the polio scare.

This UK doctor also likened Kung-Flu to polio:

Covid has a far lower mortality rate than smallpox, or indeed malaria, the subject of another WHO initiative. But its high infectivity, capacity to overwhelm hospital services, and legacy of Long Covid make it a formidable problem comparable to polio.