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Monday, January 30, 2017

Should We Ban Chicago?

According to the FBI statistics referenced by US News and World Report, violent crime overall remained near 30-year lows last year (2016), even as Americans' concern about crime hit a 15-year high in March. Most Americans believe the fake news reported by the mainstream media, they have no idea what the reality is. After all, 7 in 10 Americans last year erroneously said crime was rising.

Despite making up just 13% of the population, blacks have committed half of homicides in the United States each year for nearly 40 years (1980 to present). That number doesn't change much. But, 90% of all homicides, black or white, are committed by men, and not just any men, but men between the ages of roughly 16 and 30.

According to the US Census Bureau the black male population in the United States was 21.5 Million in 2013. Murders are almost always committed by men between the ages of 16 and 30. Roughly 24% of that 21.5 million, or 5.3 million black men, are in between 16 and 30. According to USA Today, nearly half of black men have been arrested by age 23. Or, to put it another way, half of all American black men have had a travel ban imposed on them until they are no longer of a dangerous age.

So, out of a population of 330 million, about 5.3 million citizens contain within itself the malcontents that are responsible for 50% of the murders each year. Those same black men are also generally the victims of the crime. Half of all murder victims are likewise drawn from that same 5.3 million person pool.

5.3 million out of 330 million: that means that this 1-2% of the population is responsible for 50% of all murders (and 50% of all murder victims) in America.

According to Pew Research, Muslims make up about 1% of Americans. According to Vox, Muslims accounted for about one-third of one percent of all murders in the US. We don't know how atrocities would scale. If Muslims made up 30% of the population, would they be responsible for 10% of the murders (one-third)? Or would it be more?

Before Hitler seized power (in 1933) only 850,000 out of 66 million Germans were card-carrying Nazis. After the Nazi seizure of power, there was a big surge in membership. At its peak, Party membership reached 8 million out of 80 million Germans in 'Greater Germany' or about ten percent of the population. What percentage of Germans actively participated in, or even knew about, the mass murders?

It's hard to say. After all, FDR rounded up the Japanese and sent them to internment camps. If he had begun ordering their deaths, would American soldiers have refused? Probably not - it was war-time, and people trusted their president. If ordinary civilians heard about mass slaughters of the interned Japanese, would the stories be believed? If the stories were believed, how many Americans would simply assume that the Japanese had it coming? After all, didn't their cousins attack Pearl Harbor? Would Americans really have complained if FDR sent those of Japanese ancestry into the ovens? We don't complain about abortion today. Why would we complain about we would be told was a necessary war-time measure against the invidious enemy in 1941?


We know, for a fact, that a distinct sub-population in the United States causes 50% of the murders. Oddly, no one is talking about putting a travel ban on all Chicago residents, or even just the residents from the South Side. But that would make at least as much sense as banning refugees from Syria.

Would your neighborhood accept refugees from Chicago, Detroit or Baltimore? Couldn't gang-banging murderers be hidden among such refugees? Couldn't they be just waiting to establish drug-running gangs in your neighborhood, where the pickings are easy, and the cops sleek and sleepy? Don't we have a lot more reason to believe it? Why wouldn't we instantly suspect that Chicago's murderers are fleeing to our city to escape the wrath of some home-grown drug lord?

There is an answer to every question: simple, easy, and wrong.
Trump is good at giving us these answers.
Why are we willing to accept them?


Michael said...

So is what you're saying is that a temporary ban on refugees coming from certain countries to establish better vetting systems is discriminatory and wrong? Or just a pointless exercise?

Steve Kellmeyer said...

I am saying that, according to the FBI statistics, black males between 16 and 30 are about 50 times more violent than Muslims. They represent 50 times the threat to the American population.

Jail effectively puts a "travel ban" on black men until they are no longer part of the dangerous age group. So, look at our immigration policies, look at our internal policing (the incarceration rate of black men), and what conclusions can be drawn?

Are we imposing consistent policies on dangerous sub-populations in the United States?

Vand83 said...

Whether or not they're in the US is exactly the issue isn't it?