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Friday, July 06, 2012

The Paternal Mortality Rate and Other Riddles

Alright, so I'm a math nut. Al Kresta ran a piece by C-Fam yesterday that claimed the fertility in Muslim countries was "falling off a cliff." Which is true only if you ignore half the Muslim countries in the world and only concentrate on the ones with lots of money. Now, sure, all countries in the world have been seeing fertility declines over the last forty years, but that's because all countries in the world have gotten richer in the last forty years.

As I've pointed out in earlier posts, this is not a surprise.
Contrary to what Malthus actually taught, as countries get rich, they stop having children.
When Muslim countries get rich, they stop having kids just like non-Muslim countries do.

Meanwhile, Melinda Gates is nattering on about how contraception saves women's lives.
Except it doesn't.
UN, Worldbank and CIA figures demonstrate that she's simply wrong.

I added a couple of columns to the CIA chart I had been using earlier and got this.
And what it indicated kind of blew me away.


Sort the table by "MMR per 100,000 births" with largest values at the top. That will give you the maternal mortality rate per 100,000 births - how many women die giving birth each year - and the countries will be sorted in descending order.

As we saw before, the Afghanistan and Central African Republic (CAR) numbers are ENORMOUS - around 1500 deaths per 100,000 births.

But, now that the table is sorted by MMR, take a look at the green column - the male:female sex ratios.

Any number BIGGER than one indicates that there are more males than females alive in that group. Any number LESS THAN one indicates more females alive then males.

I've highlighted the column for 15-64 in blue: those would be the fertile years for women.

Paternal Mortality Rates
Now notice that the Central African Republic has an enormous maternal mortality rate, a pretty high fertility rate (though not as high as the three Muslim countries right nearby), but it's male:female sex ratio is 0.98!

That means the Central African Republic has more women alive in their fertile years (15-64) then there are men alive. How can this possibly be true?

If so many women are dying in childbirth, shouldn't there be a lot more men alive in that age group than women?

Why yes!
Yes, there should be!
But there aren't more men then women - there are fewer men than women!

Well, because even MORE MEN are dying as they work to support their wives and children than there are women dying as they try to give birth. Keep in mind that historically, 80% of women reproduce, while only 40% of men do. There's a reason for that.

And it's not like the CAR is alone in this. Chad, Sierre Leone, Lesotho, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Swaziland, Mauritania... the list goes on for country after country.

Yes, women are dying by five or six hundred per 100,000 live births, but the men are dying even faster!

Is there such a thing as a paternal mortality rate?
If there isn't, shouldn't we start one?

Women aren't dying at a high rate because they lack contraception and abortion. They're dying at a high rate because EVERYONE in that country is dying at a high rate.

But that isn't the only thing this table can tell us.

Legal Abortion
Sort the table by the blue column - the male:female sex ratio in the fertile years for women. Now, look at the column indicating the legal status of abortion in each country. Notice how there is no correspondence between on-demand abortion and male:female sex ratios during the fertile years. We have roughly as many countries with legal abortion and a predominance of men (meaning the women disappeared) as there are countries with legal abortion and a predominance of women (meaning the men disappeared).

Now, sort by the green column - fertility rate. Notice that abortion on-demand doesn't really have a chance to get legalized until the fertility rate drops below about 2.85. The great majority of countries that have legalized abortion have fertility rates below 2.1. 

You may recall that a fertility rate of 2.1 is the minimum necessary for replacement fertility. That means nearly every country with legal abortion is slowly aging and dying as the adults stop allowing their children to live.

So, when America tries to force other countries to legalize abortion, we are really trying to force an even higher death rate on countries that already have astronomical death rates in all other categories.

Aren't we sweet?

But there's one more trick that can be pulled with these numbers.

Sort the table by total male:female sex ratios and you'll get another surprise - one that NO ONE talks about.

Double-click it so the column is in descending order, then look at the names of the countries. Any country name listed in red is majority Muslim. 

Nine of the fifteen most imbalanced sex-ratio countries in the world are Muslim - every single one of the top six are Muslim. 

The male:female sex ratios at birth in these countries are not tremendously out of whack, so how do they end up with so many more men then women in the total population column? It is over a 2:1 difference (a few years back, it was nearly a 2.5:1 difference - things have apparently gotten better). 

Well, the answer is in the column right next door - double-click the male:female sex ratios over 65. See what happens? There isn't any gender imbalance under the age of 15. But as soon as the women hit puberty, they start to disappear. 

And it doesn't matter what the abortion law is. The whole range is there, from prohibited to no restriction abortion on demand, but the gender imbalance remains. And the top six countries in which this happens are all Muslim countries on the Saudi Arabian peninsula.

How could this happen? There's only three ways: (1) thousands of men are migrating in so that they outnumber the women born in the country, (2) thousands of women are migrating out so that they men born in the country now outnumber the women, or (3) thousands of women are dying earlier in those countries than they do in other countries. 

It's a fascinating thing to see, and it is even more fascinating to notice how absolutely silent every "expert" is about these numbers. Women don't last long under the Islam practiced on the Saudi peninsula. 

But Melinda Gates is not campaigning against Islam. Instead, she is trying to give everyone condoms and free abortions. Why? Well, because condoms and free abortions don't keep women from dying, but they do kill countries. 

Of that much, we are certain.

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