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Sunday, April 06, 2025

Why Trump's Tariffs Are Stupid but Necessary

 Up until 1913 (when the income tax was instituted), 80-90% of federal revenue was tariffs. You can invoke Smoot-Hawley or 1930 all you want, but the US was neither the richest, nor the third most populous, nor the world's reserve currency then. Everything is different now. 


Although we are the world's reserve currency, we have a debt to GDP ratio of 124%. That is unsustainable. If we go bankrupt, the whole world goes bankrupt. Federal spending has to be cut. Interest rates must come down. Period. 

As the stock market declines, investors flee to treasury bonds, forcing the yield on those bonds lower. This year, almost $10 trillion will need to be refinanced. Every basis point that the yield declines translates into a billion-dollar annual savings in loan repayment. Thus, a 0.5% drop would save $500 billion over a decade. As of this writing, the yield has declined about 0.7 points. That’s a lot of money saved.

Average world salary is $18000/year. US average salary is $63000/yr. We are the 1%.

Are tariffs a tax on the American consumer? Sure. But if you believe in taxing the richest 1%, then you have to support the tariffs, because we are the richest 1%. 

Vietnam and Taiwan have already agreed to remove their tariffs against the US. Other countries will inevitably follow suit. Again, we're the third most populous nation, and one of the richest nations per capita, on the planet. We control the world's reserve currency. 

Everyone talks about saving the world. This saves the world. 

Friday, April 04, 2025

Biden vs. Vance

Is Joe Biden a worse Catholic than JD Vance, or vice versa? 

The Church teaches a hierarchy of sin. Some mortal sins are worse than other mortal sins. For instance, Aquinas taught that masturbation was worse than fornication or adultery, because fornication was ordered to the natural world and procreation, lacking only the marriage vow, while adultery was a violation of the vow, but still ordered to the natural world. Meanwhile, masturbation is not ordered to the natural world since it is rooted in fantasy and cannot lead to procreation.

Same is true of Biden vs Vance. Biden advocated murder and homosexuality, both of which are completely disordered. Vance does not advocate either. So, while you can take issue with either one, Vance is clearly the superior Catholic.